A Statistical Model for Ascertaining the Influence and Reliability of Weather Parameters on Incidence of Blossom Blight in Mango (Mangifera indica L.)

Abstract

A statistical model was developed to study the influence and reliability of weatlier parameters on incidence of blossom blight in Mango (Mangifera indica) and subsequently to predict their incidence. Results showed that preceding week's weather variables viz., maximum and minimum temperature, evaporation, rainfall, morning and evening relative humidity and wind speed were found to collectively predict blossom blight incidence to the extent of 94.3 per cent. Further, as a measure of goodness-of-fit, the coefficient of determination (R²) and mean squared error were used to evaluate the empirical model developed by using above variables. Validation test showed that the model developed using relative humidity at 07.30 h (X₃), evaporation (X₅) and wind speed (X₆) (Y = 883.4 - 8.065 X₃-11.506 X₅ -33.619 X₆) could predict the incidence to the extent of 75.7%. This model is useful in determining the role of climatic factors in disease appearance and progression and devising suitable management strategy.