Prediction Models for Frost/Low-Temperature Stress in Subtropical Fruit Plantations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24154/jhs.v7i1.391Keywords:
Minimum Temperature Forecasting, Temperature Evolution, Forecasting Performance, S-ChartAbstract
During winters, frost is a phenomenon of common occurrence in subtropical lower Himalayan region. In the recent past, it has caused considerable economic losses to fruit growers. Recommendations for protection against frost do exist, but benefits to orchards are rare due to lack of information on the level of low temperature these crops may experience in a frosty event. Studies have been conducted at Regional Horticultural and Forestry Research Station, Neri, Hamirpur, Himachal Pradesh on development of prediction models for minimum temperature and temperatureevolution during a frost event. Variables like sunset-time temperature, temperature drop and humidity increase from sunset time until two hours, have been found to explain about 74% of the total variation observed in minimum temperature. Evolution of temperature during a frosty night showed that temperature drop after sunset was an inverse exponential function of time after sunset. It justified about 67% of the total variation in temperature-evolution trend. Thiel's inequality coefficient for predicted versus actual values indicated good to very good forecasting performance of the regression lines developed. Further decomposition of inequality into bias, variance and covariance proportions also supported fitness of these lines for future prediction. Based on the information generated, a grower-friendly frost protection guide-chart (S-chart) has been developed. The chart provides information on intensity and duration of temperature below the critical level of damage for different fruit species. It also serves as a guide for the level of protection needed and for automation of protection methods against frost and low temperature damage.References
Dunn, E. 2010. How to use water mist to reduce frost damage to fruit trees. www.ehow.com/how_5805520
Fuller, M.P. and Wisniewski, M. 1998. The use of infrared thermal imaging in the study of ice nucleation and freezing in plants. J. Thermal Biol., 23:81-89
Ge, X. and Wang, X. 2009. Estimation of freezing point depression, boiling point elevation and vaporization enthalpies of electrolyte solutions. Ind. Engg. Chem. Res., 48:2229-2235
Groenzin, H., Li, I. and Shultz, M.J. 2008. The single crystal basal face of ice - investigating with sum frequency generation. The J. Chem. Phy., 128:214510
Gupta, C.B. and Gupta, V. 1996. Tests on small samples and goodness of fit. In: An Introduction to Statistical Methods (20 th Revised Ed.). Vikas Publishing House Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi 781p.
Gupta, S.C. and Kapoor, V.K. 1995. Fundamentals of Mathematical Statistics. (9 th Edn.), Sultan Chand and Sons, New Delhi, India, pp. 3.1-3.15
Gusta, L.V., Wisniewsky, M. Nesbitt, N.T. and Gusta, M.L. 2004. The effect of water, sugars and proteins on the pattern of ice nucleation and propagation in acclimated and non acclimated canola leaves. Pla. Physiol., 135:1642-1653
Hollis, J.M., Lovas, F.J., Jewell, P.R. and Coudert, L.H. 2002. Interstellar antifreeze: Propylene Glycol. The Astrophy. J., 571:L59-L62
Koutsoyiannis, A. 1991. Testing the forecasting power of an estimated model. In: Theory of Econometrics (2nd Ed.), ELBS with Mac Millan pp. 165-171
Laporta, N., Zacchini, M., Bartolini, S., Viti, R. and Roselli, G. 1994. The frost hardiness of some clones of olive cv. ‘Leccino’. J. Hortl. Sci., 69:341-345
Mancuso, S. 2002. Electrical resistance changes during exposure to low temperature measure chilling and freezing tolerance in olive tree (Olea europea L.) plants. Pl., Cell and Environ., 23:291-299
Pearce, R.S. 2001. Plant freezing and damage. Ann. Bot., 87:417-424
Sakai, A. and Larcher, W. 1987. Frost survival of plants: Responses and adaptation to freezing stress. In: Ecological Studies., 62. Springer- Verlag, Berlin
Snyder, R.L. and Melo-Abreu, J. Paulo, de. 2005. Frost protection: Fundamentals, practice and economics. FAO, In: Envir. Natural Resource Series,z 10:1-12
Soleimani, A. Lessani, H. and Talaie, A. 2003. Relationship between stomatal density and ion leakage as indicators of cold hardiness in olive (Olea europea L.). Acta Hort., 618:521-525
Theil, H. 1962. Economic Forecast and Policy. North Holland. Pp. 1-48
Theil, H. 1966. Applied Economic Forecasting. North Holland. Pp. 26-36
Thornwaite, C.W. 1948. An approach towards a rational classification of climate. Geograph. Rev., 38:55-94
UHF. 2010. http://www.yspuniversity.ac.in/package/pack-fruitcrops
Wisniewski, M., Fuller, M., Glenn, D.M., Palta, J., Carter, J., Gustta, L., Griffith, M. and Duman, J. 2001. Factors involved in ice nucleation and propagation in plants: an overview based on new insights gained from the use of infrared thermography. Buvisindi –Icel. Agril. Sci., 14:41-47
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2012 Shashi Kumar Sharma (Author)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors retain copyright. Articles published are made available as open access articles, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
This journal permits and encourages authors to share their submitted versions (preprints), accepted versions (postprints) and/or published versions (publisher versions) freely under the CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license while providing bibliographic details that credit, if applicable.